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Infectious Diseases and Immunity ; 3(2):83-89, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2320831

ABSTRACT

Background The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to threaten human health security, exerting considerable pressure on healthcare systems worldwide. While prognostic models for COVID-19 hospitalized or intensive care patients are currently available, prognostic models developed for large cohorts of thousands of individuals are still lacking. Methods Between February 4 and April 16, 2020, we enrolled 3,974 patients admitted with COVID-19 disease in the Wuhan Huo-Shen-Shan Hospital and the Maternal and Child Hospital, Hubei Province, China. (1) Screening of key prognostic factors: A univariate Cox regression analysis was performed on 2,649 patients in the training set, and factors affecting prognosis were initially screened. Subsequently, a random survival forest model was established through machine analysis to further screen for factors that are important for prognosis. Finally, multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to determine the synergy among various factors related to prognosis. (2) Establishment of a scoring system: The nomogram algorithm established a COVID-19 patient death risk assessment scoring system for the nine selected key prognostic factors, calculated the C index, drew calibration curves and drew training set patient survival curves. (3) Verification of the scoring system: The scoring system assessed 1,325 patients in the test set, splitting them into high- and low-risk groups, calculated the C-index, and drew calibration and survival curves. Results The cross-sectional study found that age, clinical classification, sex, pulmonary insufficiency, hypoproteinemia, and four other factors (underlying diseases: blood diseases, malignant tumor;complications: digestive tract bleeding, heart dysfunction) have important significance for the prognosis of the enrolled patients with COVID-19. Herein, we report the discovery of the effects of hypoproteinemia and hematological diseases on the prognosis of COVID-19. Meanwhile, the scoring system established here can effectively evaluate objective scores for the early prognoses of patients with COVID-19 and can divide them into high- and low-risk groups (using a scoring threshold of 117.77, a score below which is considered low risk). The efficacy of the system was better than that of clinical classification using the current COVID-19 guidelines (C indexes, 0.95 vs. 0.89). Conclusions Age, clinical typing, sex, pulmonary insufficiency, hypoproteinemia, and four other factors were important for COVID-19 survival. Compared with general statistical methods, this method can quickly and accurately screen out the relevant factors affecting prognosis, provide an order of importance, and establish a scoring system based on the nomogram model, which is of great clinical significance. © Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

2.
Zhonghua Xin Xue Guan Bing Za Zhi ; 48(7): 587-592, 2020 Jul 24.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-24059

ABSTRACT

Objective: Present study investigated the mechanism of heart failure associated with coronavirus infection and predicted potential effective therapeutic drugs against heart failure associated with coronavirus infection. Methods: Coronavirus and heart failure were searched in the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and omics data were selected to meet experimental requirements. Differentially expressed genes were analyzed using the Limma package in R language to screen for differentially expressed genes. The two sets of differential genes were introduced into the R language cluster Profiler package for gene ontology (GO) and Kyoto gene and genome encyclopedia (KEGG) pathway enrichment analysis. Two sets of intersections were taken. A protein interaction network was constructed for all differentially expressed genes using STRING database and core genes were screened. Finally, the apparently accurate treatment prediction platform (EpiMed) independently developed by the team was used to predict the therapeutic drug. Results: The GSE59185 coronavirus data set was searched and screened in the GEO database, and divided into wt group, ΔE group, Δ3 group, Δ5 group according to different subtypes, and compared with control group. After the difference analysis, 191 up-regulated genes and 18 down-regulated genes were defined. The GEO126062 heart failure data set was retrieved and screened from the GEO database. A total of 495 differentially expressed genes were screened, of which 165 were up-regulated and 330 were down-regulated. Correlation analysis of differentially expressed genes between coronavirus and heart failure was performed. After cross processing, there were 20 GO entries, which were mainly enriched in virus response, virus defense response, type Ⅰ interferon response, γ interferon regulation, innate immune response regulation, negative regulation of virus life cycle, replication regulation of viral genome, etc. There were 5 KEGG pathways, mainly interacting with tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling pathway, interleukin (IL)-17 signaling pathway, cytokine and receptor interaction, Toll-like receptor signaling pathway, human giant cells viral infection related. All differentially expressed genes were introduced into the STRING online analysis website for protein interaction network analysis, and core genes such as signal transducer and activator of transcription 3, IL-10, IL17, TNF, interferon regulatory factor 9, 2'-5'-oligoadenylate synthetase 1, mitogen-activated protein kinase 3, radical s-adenosyl methionine domain containing 2, c-x-c motif chemokine ligand 10, caspase 3 and other genes were screened. The drugs predicted by EpiMed's apparent precision treatment prediction platform for disease-drug association analysis were mainly TNF-α inhibitors, resveratrol, ritonavir, paeony, retinoic acid, forsythia, and houttuynia cordata. Conclusions: The abnormal activation of multiple inflammatory pathways may be the cause of heart failure in patients after coronavirus infection. Resveratrol, ritonavir, retinoic acid, amaranth, forsythia, houttuynia may have therapeutic effects. Future basic and clinical research is warranted to validate present results and hypothesis.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/complications , Heart Failure/virology , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Computational Biology , Gene Expression Profiling , Gene Ontology , Heart Failure/drug therapy , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
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